The Race For the Premier League Top 4: Our Predictions

The race for the Premier League top four spots is incredibly tight this season, with only five points separating the current top four sides. As the table below shows, Liverpool currently leads the way with 51 points after 22 matches. Right behind in second are defending champions Manchester City on 46 points from 21 games played.

Arsenal and Aston Villa are deadlocked in third and fourth place also with 46 points, though Aston Villa have featured in one additional match compared to the Gunners so far. 

Race For the Premier League

This makes football betting on the top four finish very exciting and unpredictable, as the odds and the standings could change dramatically in the remaining games.

Current Standings

Position Team Points Matches
1 Liverpool 51 22
2 Manchester City 46 21
3 Arsenal 46 22
4 Aston Villa 46 23
5 Tottenham Hotspur 44 23
6 West Ham United 36 22
7 Brighton & Hove Albion 35 23
8 Manchester United 35 22
9 Newcastle United 33 23
10 Chelsea FC 31 22

Lurking closely in fifth are London rivals Tottenham, just two points back of the all-important top four spots. The narrow goal differences between first and fourth, ranging from Liverpool’s robust +32 to Aston Villa’s still impressive +19, could make all the difference come the end of the season.

What’s more, the top four sides have all found the net over 40 times while also conceding at least 20 goals – speaking to their attacking verve but also defensive vulnerabilities others may look to prey upon.

With around 15 matches still left to play across the calendar, there is ample time for the current standings to change dramatically. Six teams sit within 10 points of fourth place, and recent dropped points for those between fifth and 10th mean momentum could swing in unexpected directions.

As such, the race for Champions League qualification remains intriguingly poised heading into the business end of the campaign.

Also Read: Where to Watch the English Premier League with Credibility

Key Factors to Consider 

Some of the key factors that may change the odds of the games include:

  • The schedule has been particularly demanding, with some clubs facing seven matches in just over three weeks during the busy winter period. The toll of such congestion presents risks like fatigue, injury and dropped points for those unable to rotate squads effectively. We’ve already seen Arsenal and Aston Villa suffer in this regard recently. 
  • Fatigue ties directly to fixture pile-up and has impacted consistency. The Villains fought valiantly but came up short against Liverpool in the FA Cup despite fielding a weaker side. Spurs meanwhile have exhibited strong motivation under Antonio Conte’s guidance to remain in contention, while West Ham also buzz with purpose in Europe and domestically.
  • Pressure too will be a factor as the season winds down. Man United have struggled with expectations, while Chelsea also feel the heat after a big summer of spending. Man City are habituated to success but cannot afford any slip-ups. 
  • Luck – Liverpool were hard done by in decisions against Brighton, but Newcastle have benefitted from timely additions. With the margins so slim, the slightest swing of fortune could prove critical.

Also Read: Reasons Why English Premier League Is The Best League Worldwide


Position Team Points
1 Liverpool 89
2 Manchester City 86
3 Arsenal 80
4 Tottenham Hotspur 77

Here’s my reasons for these predictions:

  • I foresee Liverpool maintaining their position at the summit with 89 points. With Virgil van Dijk and others back from injury boosting an already potent attack and stingy defense, the Reds look well-equipped to capture the title. 
  • Speaking of City, I have them securing second place with 86 points. Pep Guardiola’s men have all the quality needed, but juggling domestic and European competitions means their schedule is a bit more daunting down the stretch. Barring any slip-ups by Liverpool, second is probably the best they can hope for.
  • Arsenal surprised me by holding on to third with 80 points. Mikel Arteta has instilled belief and consistency in this young Gunners squad. Their favorable run of fixtures should serve them well as long as stars like Saka and Jesus stay hot. 

Please know that, with about 15 matches remaining, this thrilling top four race is impossible to predict accurately given the numerous small factors that (we’ve discussed) may sway the final standings one way or another.

Stamina and terrible luck could overcome quality, so nothing is guaranteed until the season’s final whistle.

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